Political analyst and former ally of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), Segun Sowunmi, has predicted that the 2027 presidential election will likely be a contest between President Bola Tinubu and former Vice President Atiku Abubakar.
Speaking on *Arise Television's Morning Show*, Sowunmi said Tinubu could secure victories in about 22 states but may record weaker results in parts of northern Nigeria.
According to him, the president is expected to improve on his 2023 performance in the Southeast, while maintaining strong support in the Southwest. He also projected that the South-South could deliver even better results for Tinubu than the Southeast.
Sowunmi added that Tinubu would perform well in the North Central and make significant gains in the Northwest, citing the influence of political power brokers and key stakeholders in the region.
"The election is between Tinubu and Atiku, no doubt about it," he said.
He noted that the administration would also rely on Vice President Kashim Shettima and APC governors to strengthen its performance in the Northeast.
Despite his projections, Sowunmi said the president could face challenges in parts of the North. However, he argued that recent political realignments in key states could work in the APC's favour.
Using Katsina as an example, Sowunmi recalled that the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) won the state in the last presidential election through the efforts of key party figures. He said the political landscape has since changed, pointing to the defection of Isa Kaita to the APC and the activities of other influential politicians in the state.
He also referenced Kano, where he said the APC now has additional political influence with former governor Ibrahim Shekarau, alongside APC National Chairman Abdullahi Ganduje. Sowunmi further noted that the presence of prominent business figures in the state could shape the political dynamics ahead of the election.
His comments come amid growing political discussions and early alignments ahead of the 2027 general election.
